Digital commerce spending will rise to more than $11.6trn by the end of 2021, from $10.5trn last year; a growth of 11.5% in a single year. This spend encompasses money transfer, digital goods purchases, physical goods purchases, digital ticketing purchases, banking bill payments, NFC mobile retail payments and QR code retail payments.
The research, from Juniper Research, found that the success of digital solutions during the pandemic means that consumer behaviour will become increasingly digitally led, rather than reverting to pre-pandemic norms.
It identified that reactive digital commerce strategies built in the pandemic by merchants need to turn into proactive, long-term strategies that offer the best user experience, as competition in the digital commerce ecosystem intensifies.
Mobile leading digital commerce spend
The study, Digital Commerce: Key Trends, Sectors and Market Forecasts 2021-2025, found that mobile commerce will account for 73% of all digital commerce transactions by value in 2021; rising to 79% by 2025. Mobile has emerged as the most important way to access services, and although online will remain relevant for higher-value transactions, user experiences must be mobile first.
Research author Nick Maynard explains: “Mobile apps are the dominant force in digital commerce, with user experience becoming critical, as products become heavily commoditised. Merchants must leverage AI-based analytics to ensure a truly personalised mobile commerce experience, or they will lose out to more digitally adept merchants.”
Remote physical goods purchases largest segment, contactless grows rapidly
The research also found that remote physical goods purchases will account for the single largest transaction value of any segment in 2021 at 22% of the total, followed by money transfer and QR code payments. The research identified however that contactless mobile payments will have the highest rate of growth; increasing over 242% in value between 2021 and 2025, as OEM Pay services add spending insights and other value-added services to consolidate gains made during the pandemic.