New Zealand’s mobile service revenue is forecast to grow at a modest compound annual growth interest rate (CAGR) of 2.7% from US$1.57bn in 2019 to US$1.7bn by 2024, primarily driven by increasing smartphone subscriptions, mobile data revenue and machine to machine (M2M)/Internet of Things (IoT) subscriptions, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
According to GlobalData’s Asia-Pacific Mobile Broadband Forecast Pack, the total number of mobile subscribers in New Zealand is estimated to increase from 8.4 million by the end of 2019 to 10.2 million in 2024.
Ramya Sindhu Jetty, Research Analyst of Telecoms Market Data and Intelligence at GlobalData, says: “Increasing smartphone subscriptions, device-bundled plans by mobile network operators (MNOs), high data consumption, wide 4G connectivity and decreasing churn rates are the key factors set to drive the total mobile subscribers growth during the forecast period.”
The mobile data revenue in New Zealand is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 8.1% from US$656m in 2019 to US$968m by 2024.
The Minister of Broadcasting, Communications and Digital Media of New Zealand plans to conduct the 3.5GHZ band 5G spectrum auction in 2020, following which New Zealand might be all set for a commercial launch of 5G. GlobalData forecasts 5G to account for 11% of the total country’s mobile subscribers by 2024. Apart from 5G spectrum auction, the Minister of Broadcasting plans to restore the 4G spectrum rights in the range of 1.8 GHz to 2.1GHz to the three MNOs Spark, Vodafone and 2degrees, when their rights expire in 2021.
Sindhu concludes: “With the introduction of 5G in 2020, New Zealand’s mobile telecom industry will undergo a significant growth. Vodafone New Zealand is expected to be the leading operator in mobile segment during the period 2019-2024, supported by strong growth in post-paid segment, accounting for around 54% of the total post-paid subscriptions by 2024.”